We find TAB's mistakes. Positive-EV betting, proven on the ledger.
NZ / AUMispriced odds at TAB, found automatically and sent to your Discord.
Every one of 1,400 settled picks, oldest first, +$4,663 on a $10k bankroll, each pick staked at the model's own recommendation.
Across 1,400 settled bets. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
Return
so far
Staking what the model actually recommends on every pick, sized per market from its own closing-line record and capped at 3% of bankroll, these 1,400 settled picks returned +$4,663 on a $10k bankroll, or +$233 on $500. Same picks, same period. Only the bankroll size differs.
A $10,000 bankroll is now $14,663.
1,400 bets over 3.9 months, about 83 a week. The edge shows up over the long haul, not on any single night.
Actual is realised; Expected is the smooth path if every bet returned exactly its edge. The gap is variance. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
01Assumptions. $10,000 starting bankroll · each pick staked at the model's own recommendation for that market, capped at 3% of bankroll · every pick graded on the real final result, no cherry-picking.
02The expected line is corrected downward for drift we can measure; uncorrected it predicted roughly 3× the profit actually realised. Dropped markets are removed on their whole history, not from the day we dropped them. How we measure, and what we removed.
Today's free pick
live right now
The lowest-edge pick on our board right now, on the house. Sign up free to see the rest.
The price moves
our way
After we send a pick, the most accurate bookmakers usually move their price toward ours. That is the strongest sign the edge is real, and it shows up long before profit does.
95% confidence interval +1.59% to +3.05% across 234 settled picks since Jul 4. The interval clears zero, which is what makes this a measurement rather than a run of luck.
| Market | Picks | Avg move | 95% interval | Moved our way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebounds | 83 | +2.83% | +1.68% to +3.99% | 80% |
| Pitcher Ks | 69 | +0.39% | −1.10% to +1.88% | 55% |
| Assists | 56 | +3.06% | +1.54% to +4.59% | 73% |
| Points | 26 | +4.18% | +2.94% to +5.42% | 92% |
Measured against an independent bookmaker's last price before the game, not our own pricing. Pitcher Ks crosses zero on this sample and does not demonstrate an edge. On the 160 picks with a genuinely independent last price it is +1.93%. How this is measured.
Free to watch.
$4.61 a week to bet it.
$9.99 your first month with code WELCOME10 at checkout, then $19.99/mo.
Two months free. Saves $41 against paying monthly.
Both paid plans include
- Every +EV pick the scanners find, in real time
- A private Discord alert the moment a price is flagged
- The stake already worked out for your bankroll
- Full open board and settled results, not a teaser
Around 84 picks a week on recent form. You place them yourself at TAB. We never touch your money or your account. Cancel anytime.
NZ-EV is analysis only. We don't take bets or hold funds.
What we tested
and did not send
Before a market is ever sent to a member it runs in evaluation: priced, settled and graded like a real pick, but never published and never staked. Most of them never graduate. Here is all of it, the failures included, because a record that only shows the survivors is not a record.
under evaluation
across all of them
tested across 6 sports
1,116 of 1,819 evaluated picks with a captured closing line beat it. These figures are deliberately kept out of the track record above, which answers a different question, how the picks you actually receive have gone. Averaging in thousands of picks nobody was sent would make that number mean nothing.
Last 5 bets
logged
- Anfernee Simons Over 9.5 PointsCleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers−0.96%
- LeBron James Over 15.5 PointsCleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers+0.88%
- Jaylen Brown Over 20.5 PointsCleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers+0.88%
- Joel Embiid Over 3.5 AssistsCleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers−0.78%
- James Harden Under 2.5 Made ThreesCleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers−0.98%