Questions
The answers,
including the awkward one.
Most sites in this category answer six questions and skip the one that decides whether any of it works for you. Ours is first.
Will TAB limit or close my account?
It can, and if you bet well for long enough it probably will. TAB reserves the right to restrict stakes, refuse bets or close an account at its discretion, and that is in the terms you agreed to when you opened it. Nothing we do changes that.
This matters more here than it does for a multi-book service overseas. They spread the same strategy across thirty bookmakers, so being cut off by one is an inconvenience. We price one book, because in New Zealand there is one book. If TAB restricts you, the product stops being useful to you, and we would rather you knew that before you paid us than after.
What we do about it: we only send prices that clear a calibrated edge floor rather than every theoretical mispricing, we keep stakes ordinary rather than maximal, and we would sooner send nothing on a quiet day than pad the board. That reduces how quickly you stand out. It does not make you invisible, and we will not pretend otherwise.
Is any of this guaranteed?
No. A positive-EV price is a price better than the true chance. It is not a winner. You will lose plenty of individual bets, and losing runs of a length that feels wrong are a normal feature of a real edge rather than a sign something broke.
The edge only shows across hundreds of bets. Everything we publish is past tense, on assumptions printed beside it, and none of it is a forecast of what you would make. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What bankroll do I need, and how much should I stake?
Every pick arrives with the stake already worked out, so you are not doing arithmetic under time pressure. The important part is the size you start from: pick a bankroll you could lose entirely without it changing anything in your life, and size individual bets so a long losing run is survivable rather than so a good week is impressive.
The curve on our homepage is drawn flat, the same stake on every pick, at one unit equal to 1% of bankroll, and that assumption is printed next to the chart. It is what the chart plots, not a recommendation for you. If the stake attached to a pick ever feels large against what you can afford, stake less. Nothing about the edge requires you to bet a particular amount.
Why has nothing arrived for days?
Usually because there was nothing worth sending. Volume follows the sporting calendar rather than a schedule: picks arrive in bursts around the fixtures we cover, and between seasons there are genuinely quiet stretches. The lane our longest track record sits in goes out of season entirely.
On top of that, a market has to clear the calibrated edge floor before anything is published, and new lanes run in evaluation for a long time before they are allowed to send. The scanners keep running throughout. They simply find fewer prices worth taking, and we would rather send nothing than send filler.
Is this a tipping service?
No, and the difference is not marketing. A tipster tells you who will win. We have no opinion on who will win. We look for prices at TAB that are better than the true chance of the thing happening, which is a question about the number rather than about the teams.
The practical test is what happens when we are wrong. A tipping service quietly stops mentioning the bad weeks. Every pick we have ever sent is graded in public, win or lose, and where we have removed bets from the record we have published what we removed and why.
How do you actually find the picks?
We take the whole TAB board every fifteen minutes and price each market against the sharpest bookmakers in the world, the ones whose prices move first and get copied. Stripping their margin out of those prices gives a fair probability. Where TAB implies a worse probability than that, the price is wrong in your favour.
That comparison is the entire mechanism, and it is why this is a New Zealand product rather than a general one. Nobody else is measuring what TAB charges market by market.
Which bookmaker do I need an account with?
TAB. That is the book we price, so it is the book the picks are at. You place them yourself in your own account.
We link straight to the market where we can, so getting the bet on is usually a couple of taps rather than a hunt through the app.
How many picks will I get, and how do they arrive?
Free members get up to one pick a day by email. It is a real pick, not a teaser, and deliberately the smallest edge on the board so you can watch the method work before paying for it.
“Up to” is doing real work in that sentence, so here is the honest version. A free pick only goes out when the board holds one that still has enough time before the start for you to actually place it, and on plenty of days there isn't one. Over the last month members received about three free picks a week, against roughly twenty-four picks a day on the paid side. If you are deciding whether to pay, assume the free tier shows you the method rather than a usable flow of bets. That is what it is for.
Members get every pick the scanners find, the moment they find it, as an alert in a private Discord channel, plus the full open board and the complete settled results rather than a sample. Recent volume is quoted on the homepage from the settled ledger, not from a marketing estimate.
What does “under evaluation” mean on the homepage?
New markets get priced and graded for a long stretch before they are ever allowed to send you a bet. Those are the markets under evaluation: real picks, scored against real results, staked with nothing.
We publish the complete evaluation population, including the lanes that never graduated. Showing only the ones that worked would be survivorship bias, which is the most common way a betting track record is made to look better than it is.
What does it cost?
$19.99/mo, and the free tier is free forever with no card required: up to a pick a day, though in practice fewer (see above). Your first month is $9.99 with the code WELCOME10 at checkout.
There is no trial that quietly starts billing you. The free tier is not time-limited, so if you want to watch the ledger for three months before deciding, that is a supported way to use this.
How do I cancel?
Email hello@nz-ev.org and we will cancel it the same day. There is no self-serve cancel button in the dashboard yet, which is on us. Until there is, a one-line email is all it takes, and we will not ask you why.
Cancelling stops the next payment. You keep member access until the end of the period you have already paid for, and Discord access is removed when that period ends rather than immediately.
Do you ever hold my money or place bets for me?
Never. We do not take wagers, hold funds, or have any access to your TAB account. We are an analysis service: we tell you a price looks wrong, and you decide whether to bet it with your own money in your own account.
The only payment between us is the subscription, which is handled by Stripe. We never see your card details.
Is this legal?
Betting your own money in your own account with New Zealand's licensed operator is legal, and publishing analysis of publicly advertised odds is legal. We are not doing anything to TAB's systems that an ordinary customer with a spreadsheet and a lot of patience could not do by hand.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction. We are not lawyers and none of this is legal advice. If you are unsure how any of it applies to you, get advice from someone who is.
What do you do with my email address?
We send you the picks and the occasional note about the product, and that is all. We do not sell it, rent it, or pass it to a bookmaker or an affiliate. We have no affiliate arrangements with anyone, which is worth saying plainly because most sites in this category are paid for by them.
Every email we send has a working unsubscribe link. If you want your account and its data deleted outright, email hello@nz-ev.org and we will do it. You do not have to give a reason.
Something is broken, or I have a question this does not answer.
Use the contact form, or email hello@nz-ev.org directly. A real person reads it and you will normally hear back within one working day.
If a pick settled wrongly, or a number on the site looks off, say so. Grading errors are the thing we most want told about, and we have restated the public record before rather than quietly leave it wrong.
Ask us the thing this page didn't cover.
A real person reads every message and you'll normally hear back within one working day. If you'd rather not use a form, hello@nz-ev.org reaches the same inbox.