Writing
Notes on betting value in New Zealand, measured against our own data, not asserted.
Pinnacle commonly prices an even match at about 2.4%. The regulated US market just posted an all-time high of 11.6%. TAB measures at 7.2%. Before this site talks about TAB specifically, here is where that number actually sits.
Picking the right side is half the job. We changed how much every pick is staked, using the same closing-line evidence that proves the picks work in the first place. Real ledger, real numbers, not a simulation.
New Zealand has one bookmaker, and nobody publishes what it costs to bet with, not even TAB. So we measured the whole board: about 7% on sport, about 24% on the races. Open any race and watch the book add past 100%.
Most betting advice is about picking winners. Expected value is about prices. Flip a coin a thousand times below and watch what a 0.20 difference in the odds does to the same bets.
The working behind the sports half of the margin index. One full capture of the TAB board, 146,956 prices, and where the cut sits sport by sport. The draw is the expensive part.