Positive-EV betting, proven on the ledger.

+3.1%overall ROI
+15.5ureturn overall
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Across 524 settled bets. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

Bankroll

Expected vs actual

A $1,000 bankroll is now $1,155 actual vs $1,079 expected.

524 bets over 7 weeks — about 79.7 a week. The edge shows up over the long haul, not on any single night.

Actual is realised; Expected is the smooth path if every bet returned exactly its edge — the gap is variance. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

Assumptions: $1,000 starting bankroll · 1u = $10 (1%) · a flat 1u on every pick · every pick graded on the real final result, no cherry-picking.

What's in this curve: only the markets we still send. Segments retired for showing no edge against the closing line — soccer 1X2, soccer Unders, rugby league, tennis — plus exhibition fixtures and hand-placed bets are excluded, on their whole history rather than from the day we dropped them. They are still settled and tracked; they are just not the product. Restated 8 Aug 2026.

About the expected line: it is drawn from our edge estimate after correcting for a bias we can measure — the sharp market moves about 3.8 points against a pick between the moment we flag it and kickoff. The uncorrected estimate predicted roughly three times the profit actually realised, so the honest number is the one plotted. The actual line is unchanged: it is the real result of every graded pick.

Closing line value

We beat the sharp close

The closing line is the sharpest price a market ever offers — by kickoff the pros have bet it into shape. Taking a longer price than the close is the strongest evidence an edge is real, and it shows up long before ROI does.

60%of picks beat the close
+2.82%average CLV

Across 156 settled match-market picks since Jul 4, each measured against Pinnacle's de-vigged fair price at kickoff — an independent sharp book we don't take our own numbers from. Player props are excluded here: they're priced off a different book and their closing reference isn't comparable.

Ledger

Last 5 bets logged